Madhuri
09-30 02:19 PM
Yes, you are right, the recent 485 denials for people using AC-21 have nothing to do with Obama/Durbin immigtaion policy. But I kind of remember there were some harsh provisions for people using AC 21 in CIR 2007 version. I am trying to find out the details about it.
Correct me if I am wrong.
AC21 denial is nothing to do with immigaration policy of Durbin or Obama. It is due to lack of regulations in USCIS or USCIS not efficient to follow the law/rules or bad customer service. This is where we need Obama. Becuase, he is favor of more/stright regulation or more accountability or strong government.
Correct me if I am wrong.
AC21 denial is nothing to do with immigaration policy of Durbin or Obama. It is due to lack of regulations in USCIS or USCIS not efficient to follow the law/rules or bad customer service. This is where we need Obama. Becuase, he is favor of more/stright regulation or more accountability or strong government.
wallpaper 2003 Love Actually - Harry
nixstor
08-10 10:45 PM
Yewwwww. Stupid morons get to run the show on CNN who consider guest worker program for Illegal Aliens and H1B the same.
I dont understand why USCIS has to release data to a random attorney guy.
Why the hell doesnt he know how many H1B's are being issued every year? Is this attorney guy sleeping or what? 65K and they are gone on May26th 2006Huh?
I dont understand why USCIS has to release data to a random attorney guy.
Why the hell doesnt he know how many H1B's are being issued every year? Is this attorney guy sleeping or what? 65K and they are gone on May26th 2006Huh?
Vsach
01-09 06:19 PM
What a waste of time & energy!! :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
Why can't we all plan a strategy to get the Green Card process going....rather waste time discussing something like this????:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::m ad::mad::mad::mad:
Why can't we all plan a strategy to get the Green Card process going....rather waste time discussing something like this????:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::m ad::mad::mad::mad:
2011 LOVE ACTUALLY
Macaca
12-29 07:42 PM
What India Inc. Was Up To in 2010 (http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2010/12/29/what-india-inc-was-up-to-in-2010/) By Tripti Lahiri | IndiaRealTime
We looked back at almost a year of India Real Time blog posts on business and the economy and here, summed up in five points, are the highs, lows and key things to take away from all the court judgments, reports, numbers and other data that the Indian economy and India Inc. generated this year.
The Ambani fraternal feud ended, sort of. A Supreme Court judgment in May said a gas price set by the government would prevail over one in an agreement between Mukesh Ambani and younger brother Anil Ambani, ending the long-running legal dispute between the two over at what price Mukesh should sell gas to his younger brother.
Years on from their father�s death in 2002, and after an acrimonious split of the Ambani business empire in 2005, things seem to be easing between the two. This year the two brother scrapped a noncompete agreement. That move allows firms from each brother�s empire to work in areas that the other brother is already involved in.
Car sales, viewed as an indicator of overall economic health, chugged along. Even though upgrades to meet new fuel emissions rules made cars more expensive and rate increases made loans more expensive, cars sold like crazy, according to sales figures released each month. Although small, compact cars continue to be India�s top preference, SUVs made a lot of headway in India this year, to the distress of India�s environment minister, Jairam Ramesh.
Speaking of Jairam Ramesh, the environment minister has been very energetic, to industry�s distress. Mr. Ramesh was quick to act on a panel report that said the India-focused metals firm Vedanta had violated provisions of India�s forest rights law. He halted the company�s bauxite mining plans in Orissa. The Lavasa hill town project in Maharashtra also got a stop-work order from the environment ministry in the wake of complaints from a nonprofit.
Mr. Ramesh is now debating whether or not to put the green hex on the already vexed Korean steelmaker Posco, which has been trying to bring plans to build a steel plant in Orissa to fruition for five years. What he does�a decision is expected early in the new year�on the steel plant will could help show industry whether Vedanta was a one-off or whether Mr. Ramesh means to continue as he has begun.
RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao is watching inflation like a hawk. It�s true the central bank governor, who likes to crack a joke or two and quotes Chinese leaders from time to time, didn�t raise rates at the last monetary policy review two weeks ago. (He had said in November that the Reserve Bank of India wasn�t likely to do so for about three months.)
However, inflation has been a key concern all year and the Indian bank has been fairly aggressive about tightening. With a goal of bringing the headline inflation rate, which was 7.48% in November, down by 2 percentage points by March, expect Mr. Subbaro to resume a tight hold of the reins.
Indian women have a really hard time juggling family and work, and that�s probably not good for the economy. It�s pretty clear that Indian women aren�t shy about leading�a woman runs the ruling party and another woman heads India�s top private bank. More women are CEOs of top companies here than of Fortune 500 companies. But several reports and conferences over the year have said that India needs to do more to take advantage of educated women it has, particularly as firms in the formal sector complain of a shortage (as a country of a billion people, there�s no unskilled labor shortage though).
Many of them agreed that Indian women face extremely high pressure on the family front, even compared to women in other emerging economies, and that it can be quite hard for them stick with positions and climb up the ladder as a result.
India Raises Renewable Energy Target Fourfold (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513204576048870791325278.html) By ERIC YEP | IndiaRealTime
We looked back at almost a year of India Real Time blog posts on business and the economy and here, summed up in five points, are the highs, lows and key things to take away from all the court judgments, reports, numbers and other data that the Indian economy and India Inc. generated this year.
The Ambani fraternal feud ended, sort of. A Supreme Court judgment in May said a gas price set by the government would prevail over one in an agreement between Mukesh Ambani and younger brother Anil Ambani, ending the long-running legal dispute between the two over at what price Mukesh should sell gas to his younger brother.
Years on from their father�s death in 2002, and after an acrimonious split of the Ambani business empire in 2005, things seem to be easing between the two. This year the two brother scrapped a noncompete agreement. That move allows firms from each brother�s empire to work in areas that the other brother is already involved in.
Car sales, viewed as an indicator of overall economic health, chugged along. Even though upgrades to meet new fuel emissions rules made cars more expensive and rate increases made loans more expensive, cars sold like crazy, according to sales figures released each month. Although small, compact cars continue to be India�s top preference, SUVs made a lot of headway in India this year, to the distress of India�s environment minister, Jairam Ramesh.
Speaking of Jairam Ramesh, the environment minister has been very energetic, to industry�s distress. Mr. Ramesh was quick to act on a panel report that said the India-focused metals firm Vedanta had violated provisions of India�s forest rights law. He halted the company�s bauxite mining plans in Orissa. The Lavasa hill town project in Maharashtra also got a stop-work order from the environment ministry in the wake of complaints from a nonprofit.
Mr. Ramesh is now debating whether or not to put the green hex on the already vexed Korean steelmaker Posco, which has been trying to bring plans to build a steel plant in Orissa to fruition for five years. What he does�a decision is expected early in the new year�on the steel plant will could help show industry whether Vedanta was a one-off or whether Mr. Ramesh means to continue as he has begun.
RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao is watching inflation like a hawk. It�s true the central bank governor, who likes to crack a joke or two and quotes Chinese leaders from time to time, didn�t raise rates at the last monetary policy review two weeks ago. (He had said in November that the Reserve Bank of India wasn�t likely to do so for about three months.)
However, inflation has been a key concern all year and the Indian bank has been fairly aggressive about tightening. With a goal of bringing the headline inflation rate, which was 7.48% in November, down by 2 percentage points by March, expect Mr. Subbaro to resume a tight hold of the reins.
Indian women have a really hard time juggling family and work, and that�s probably not good for the economy. It�s pretty clear that Indian women aren�t shy about leading�a woman runs the ruling party and another woman heads India�s top private bank. More women are CEOs of top companies here than of Fortune 500 companies. But several reports and conferences over the year have said that India needs to do more to take advantage of educated women it has, particularly as firms in the formal sector complain of a shortage (as a country of a billion people, there�s no unskilled labor shortage though).
Many of them agreed that Indian women face extremely high pressure on the family front, even compared to women in other emerging economies, and that it can be quite hard for them stick with positions and climb up the ladder as a result.
India Raises Renewable Energy Target Fourfold (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203513204576048870791325278.html) By ERIC YEP | IndiaRealTime
more...
unitednations
08-08 08:00 PM
Hi Unitednations,
I have a little problem. I am a canadian citizen on H1b and used to commute across the border everyday. I work for Ford and every year during christmas we get a week long vacation. My contracting company does not pay me for the xmas break. So, I filed for unemployment compensation in michigan for that week - reason - temporary layoff (as a Canadian Citizen you can collect unemployment from michigan......thats what my US citizen colleagues do every year........Does this mean I was out of status for that week?....Can this cause my I-485 to get rejected? (I have done it twice in 5 years)
No.
Yeah; you wre out of status for those weeks that you took unemployment.
It shouldn't impact you since, you have been going in and out of the country. (ie., 245k).
It is very dangerous for companies to lay off workers and they take unemployment compensation. This is one of the reasons the mainstream companies don't do h-1b or greencard because there are complexities if people are being laid off and taking unemployment.
Are you still living in Canada. Not much advantage to it anymore. Looks like their prices haven't been adjusted downwards. It's probably more expensive now to live in Windsor/Toronto and to commute on a daily basis to Detroit.
I have a little problem. I am a canadian citizen on H1b and used to commute across the border everyday. I work for Ford and every year during christmas we get a week long vacation. My contracting company does not pay me for the xmas break. So, I filed for unemployment compensation in michigan for that week - reason - temporary layoff (as a Canadian Citizen you can collect unemployment from michigan......thats what my US citizen colleagues do every year........Does this mean I was out of status for that week?....Can this cause my I-485 to get rejected? (I have done it twice in 5 years)
No.
Yeah; you wre out of status for those weeks that you took unemployment.
It shouldn't impact you since, you have been going in and out of the country. (ie., 245k).
It is very dangerous for companies to lay off workers and they take unemployment compensation. This is one of the reasons the mainstream companies don't do h-1b or greencard because there are complexities if people are being laid off and taking unemployment.
Are you still living in Canada. Not much advantage to it anymore. Looks like their prices haven't been adjusted downwards. It's probably more expensive now to live in Windsor/Toronto and to commute on a daily basis to Detroit.
logiclife
06-01 01:19 PM
Its also MSNBC. Just look at Tucker Carlson and Joe Scarborough.
If you hear Tucker Carlson on MSNBC, he sounds like the protege of Jeff Sessions.
However, one difference between Tucker Carlson and Lou Dobbs. Tucker supports(or atleast pretends to support) the legal variety.
Lou Dobbs openly opposes all immigration.
If you hear Tucker Carlson on MSNBC, he sounds like the protege of Jeff Sessions.
However, one difference between Tucker Carlson and Lou Dobbs. Tucker supports(or atleast pretends to support) the legal variety.
Lou Dobbs openly opposes all immigration.
more...
Refugee_New
01-07 10:02 AM
Their ideology is kill th kafir (non-beleivers). thats where all the problems started.
Keep barking the same thing again and again. This is not going to make even a small dent on my faith. The more you hate, the more we love our faith.
Keep barking the same thing again and again. This is not going to make even a small dent on my faith. The more you hate, the more we love our faith.
2010 rickman harus di buat
validIV
06-23 03:25 PM
Yea your calculation is a little off. 400,000 financed @ 5% 30 year fixed is $2,148. Factor in your taxes and insurance in escrow thats a total of (approximately, im guessing for your area) $2,500 total. Plus your HOA of $250/month thats 2750 which sounds about right with gapala's calculation. Your closing costs, give or take should also be factored, approx. 10-30k.
So that comes to 33k/yoy in expenses. That may not be bad when your making six figure incomes or combined household incoming is 150K+, since 20k+ of interest is deductible yoy, but imo i wouldnt buy a 500k+ property unless there is some sort of income to bring down my monthly cost, like a rental unit.
Townhouses here in NY are very similar to condos so I'm assuming that its the same there. I personally would not pay 500k for something similar to a condo unless its in Manhattan. Just curious why not buy a house instead of a townhouse? Unless thats the norm in that area. I would prefer to take care of the house myself than pay maintenance and HoA dues. You learn a lot more and grow as a homeowner.
Here is one calculation that might give you one more reason to buy...
This is taking into consideration bay area good school district ....
say you are currently in a 2 bedroom paying around $1900 rent (say cupertino school district)
you buy a townhome for around $500k putting down 20%
so loan amount is 400k
@ 5% instrest your annual intrest is $ 20k.
Say 3k HOA anually...
Property tax....as a rule of thumb, I believe (and have heard from others) whatever poperty tax you pay comes back as your mortgage intrest and property tax is deductable.
So not taking property tax into account....your annual expense is 23k.
now here is the nice part....
you get 8k (or is it 7.5k ?) from FED for buying a house (first time buyer)
If you get a real estate agent who is ready to give you 50% back on the comission you can get back around 7.5k (assuming the agent gets 3% comission)...I know those kind of agent exist for sure !!
There is something I have heard about CA also giving you 10k for buying new homes...but I am not sure of this so will leave it out of the calculations...
so total amount u get back....8k+ 7.5k = 15k approx..
1st year expense = 23k
1st year actual expense = 23-15 = 8 k
which mean monthly rent = 8k/12 = $666 per month (it is like paying $666 rent for a 2 bedroom in cupertino school district)
Will the property value go up ? I do not know (I wish I knew)...
Is there a risk ? I would think yes....
Percentage of risk ? I would think keeping in mind current prices the risk is low...
I am not telling that you should buy or not buy....just provided one piece of the calculation....-;)
All the best !
So that comes to 33k/yoy in expenses. That may not be bad when your making six figure incomes or combined household incoming is 150K+, since 20k+ of interest is deductible yoy, but imo i wouldnt buy a 500k+ property unless there is some sort of income to bring down my monthly cost, like a rental unit.
Townhouses here in NY are very similar to condos so I'm assuming that its the same there. I personally would not pay 500k for something similar to a condo unless its in Manhattan. Just curious why not buy a house instead of a townhouse? Unless thats the norm in that area. I would prefer to take care of the house myself than pay maintenance and HoA dues. You learn a lot more and grow as a homeowner.
Here is one calculation that might give you one more reason to buy...
This is taking into consideration bay area good school district ....
say you are currently in a 2 bedroom paying around $1900 rent (say cupertino school district)
you buy a townhome for around $500k putting down 20%
so loan amount is 400k
@ 5% instrest your annual intrest is $ 20k.
Say 3k HOA anually...
Property tax....as a rule of thumb, I believe (and have heard from others) whatever poperty tax you pay comes back as your mortgage intrest and property tax is deductable.
So not taking property tax into account....your annual expense is 23k.
now here is the nice part....
you get 8k (or is it 7.5k ?) from FED for buying a house (first time buyer)
If you get a real estate agent who is ready to give you 50% back on the comission you can get back around 7.5k (assuming the agent gets 3% comission)...I know those kind of agent exist for sure !!
There is something I have heard about CA also giving you 10k for buying new homes...but I am not sure of this so will leave it out of the calculations...
so total amount u get back....8k+ 7.5k = 15k approx..
1st year expense = 23k
1st year actual expense = 23-15 = 8 k
which mean monthly rent = 8k/12 = $666 per month (it is like paying $666 rent for a 2 bedroom in cupertino school district)
Will the property value go up ? I do not know (I wish I knew)...
Is there a risk ? I would think yes....
Percentage of risk ? I would think keeping in mind current prices the risk is low...
I am not telling that you should buy or not buy....just provided one piece of the calculation....-;)
All the best !
more...
SunnySurya
08-05 03:25 PM
....
hair Alan Rickman as Professor
gomirage
06-05 07:18 PM
Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.
When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.
30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.
It's not rocket science, just common sense. In case you are aware, lot of people on this forum don't have gc in hand. What will they do if they decide to leave due to gc taking too long to come through. Ask they bank to give back the money they spend on stupid interest for 10 years for a house upside down ?
Common sense is to rent until you are sure you're staying for good.
When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.
30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.
It's not rocket science, just common sense. In case you are aware, lot of people on this forum don't have gc in hand. What will they do if they decide to leave due to gc taking too long to come through. Ask they bank to give back the money they spend on stupid interest for 10 years for a house upside down ?
Common sense is to rent until you are sure you're staying for good.
more...
Macaca
03-06 09:01 PM
Employment Authorization (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCR D&vgnextchannel=1847c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)
Passing On H-1b Costs to the Employee? Smart Business Practice or DOL Violation? (http://www.hammondlawfirm.com/FeesArticle07.18.2006.pdf) by Michael F. Hammond and
Damaris Del Valle
H-1B visa -- From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1B_visa)
Questions & Answers from CIS Ombudsman's Teleconference (http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/structure/gc_1175876976479.shtm)
I-485 Standard Operating Procedure (http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf)
Passing On H-1b Costs to the Employee? Smart Business Practice or DOL Violation? (http://www.hammondlawfirm.com/FeesArticle07.18.2006.pdf) by Michael F. Hammond and
Damaris Del Valle
H-1B visa -- From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H1B_visa)
Questions & Answers from CIS Ombudsman's Teleconference (http://www.dhs.gov/xabout/structure/gc_1175876976479.shtm)
I-485 Standard Operating Procedure (http://www.ilw.com/seminars/august2002_citation2b.pdf)
hot Alan Rickman in Love Actually
satishku_2000
08-02 07:10 PM
Re-file 140 or file an appeal on the 140.
Filing the appeal; you will be able to extend the h-1b.
Thanks UN for your comments , any comments for the situation mentioned in this thread
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11819
Filing the appeal; you will be able to extend the h-1b.
Thanks UN for your comments , any comments for the situation mentioned in this thread
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=11819
more...
house Alan Rickman Favorite
file485
07-07 10:05 PM
Hi,
Thank you for all your support.They asked for my husband`s paystubs ,all employment history all W2`s when he filed for AOS as primary.Later we withdrew his petition and only kept petition filed through me as the primary.That officer is extremely detailed oriented ,he/she asked and questioned every minute detail pertaining to our case.
New update on EAD is that local offices are no longer authorized to issue interim EAD`S.We went to local office in greer, south carolina(we live in charlotte,nc) and the answer we got was that they can only email uscis why there is a delay.and if we wanted to find an answer we should come back in 2 weeks and that they won`t disclose any thing by phone because of privacy act.
you mean to say,while filling in the form for his AOS..I think somewhere it asks that 'have you filed for AOS earlier etc(not sure the correct wordings..)'..so he had to choose a 'yes'..is that so..? if it was yes,possibly that was the reason for scrutiny..
when his case was so shaky, he should not have filed for AOS..but what has happened has happened though..
jeez..this is so stressful and can totally empathize with you
Thank you for all your support.They asked for my husband`s paystubs ,all employment history all W2`s when he filed for AOS as primary.Later we withdrew his petition and only kept petition filed through me as the primary.That officer is extremely detailed oriented ,he/she asked and questioned every minute detail pertaining to our case.
New update on EAD is that local offices are no longer authorized to issue interim EAD`S.We went to local office in greer, south carolina(we live in charlotte,nc) and the answer we got was that they can only email uscis why there is a delay.and if we wanted to find an answer we should come back in 2 weeks and that they won`t disclose any thing by phone because of privacy act.
you mean to say,while filling in the form for his AOS..I think somewhere it asks that 'have you filed for AOS earlier etc(not sure the correct wordings..)'..so he had to choose a 'yes'..is that so..? if it was yes,possibly that was the reason for scrutiny..
when his case was so shaky, he should not have filed for AOS..but what has happened has happened though..
jeez..this is so stressful and can totally empathize with you
tattoo LOVE ACTUALLY
JunRN
06-06 12:02 AM
What if a builder offer you a new home with a fixed monthly mortgage that is equal to or lower than your monthly rental on similarly sized home at same zip code, will you take it?
note: Given that you will get $8k stimulus money to recover your downpayment.
note: Given that you will get $8k stimulus money to recover your downpayment.
more...
pictures Love Actually,
purgan
04-06 11:03 PM
I don't think this bill is going to go anywhere, atleast in the Senate. Durbin and Grassley have long harbored anti-H1B feelings (Grassley is a restrictionist in general, while Durban is only pro-illegal), so no wonder IEEE and Prog Guild approached them to introduce this bill. The fininshing touch came when 60 engineer-lobbyists from IEEE came to Capitol Hill the week before to influence lawmakers...
dresses Alan Rickman
pasupuleti
06-21 06:50 PM
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/06/21/EDGDOILMUV1.DTL
more...
makeup ALAN RICKMAN
kshitijnt
06-26 01:33 PM
Dear IV Members, Kindly be respectful to others even if you do not agree with their opinion. I saw ValidIV was give a lot of negative reputation since he disagreed with views of many people. KIndly do not do so. The debate should be respectful with honorable disagreement.
girlfriend wallpaper young alan rickman
SunnySurya
08-06 12:21 PM
Don't worry there is no solid basis for the lawsuit. Only lawsuit that can be filled , if at all, is BS+5 , which is USCIS ineterpretation of Advance degree equivalent.
Source: A reputed lawyer known to us all on this forum.
Mode of consultation: E-mail
Next course of action: Unknown. But folks with US Masters or higher please PM me...
Lot of our case was exactly like that - i was eligible for EB2 when my Eb3 labor was filed. Employer took advantage of my compromising situation ( H was having 390 days juice left)
If Porting/Interfiling is taken off folks like me will be terribly victimized. I'm here for 9 years - my 1st labor was substituted , 2nd labor ( which should be Eb2 but filed in Eb3) took a round trip from Phily backlog elimination center and now i'm stuck in the Eb3-140 mess at NSC.
My friends who are lucky enough & have filed fresh EB2 labor (based on BS+5, not MS also) have got till 140 approved and applied 485 as well due to EB2 being JUNE 2006 within 2 years of starting GC process.
Porting/Interfiling must be there for genuine cases. If someone files a lawsuit against porting i'll file a counter lawsuit on discrimination grounds.
Source: A reputed lawyer known to us all on this forum.
Mode of consultation: E-mail
Next course of action: Unknown. But folks with US Masters or higher please PM me...
Lot of our case was exactly like that - i was eligible for EB2 when my Eb3 labor was filed. Employer took advantage of my compromising situation ( H was having 390 days juice left)
If Porting/Interfiling is taken off folks like me will be terribly victimized. I'm here for 9 years - my 1st labor was substituted , 2nd labor ( which should be Eb2 but filed in Eb3) took a round trip from Phily backlog elimination center and now i'm stuck in the Eb3-140 mess at NSC.
My friends who are lucky enough & have filed fresh EB2 labor (based on BS+5, not MS also) have got till 140 approved and applied 485 as well due to EB2 being JUNE 2006 within 2 years of starting GC process.
Porting/Interfiling must be there for genuine cases. If someone files a lawsuit against porting i'll file a counter lawsuit on discrimination grounds.
hairstyles alan rickman and heike
validIV
06-05 11:43 AM
Sorry but no matter how you spin it, owning a home is better than renting. Renting is not smart. period. your money is gone every month. You are not getting that money back.
When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.
30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
------------------------------------
Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
When you own a home, the money goes towards a mortgage, and although most of it goes to interest at first, all interest paid is tax deductible which is a huge chunk of change every year. I get more money back as an owner than a renter and in the long run I save more AND own the home.
30 year renter vs 30 year home owner? That is not rocket science.
here is a good point about long term housing prospects. I for one am glad that GC delay saved me from buying a house.
this is from an article
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Why do I think housing is in the tank for the long term?
First, I listen to people smarter than I am - a key to success from investing to recreation league baseball. When my rec team had its first losing season - after twelve consecutive great seasons (two per year) I did the logical and hired a professional coach. They were winners the next season. Ditto for analyzing stuff - and I follow Ivy Zelman and Whitney Tilson. They have been dead on about the mortgage meltdown - and see a larger one coming.
Listening to them, reading data and being objective has led me to see the key to a rebound in housing is clearing inventory - too much supply and too little demand, and since lower than five percent interest rates have not spurred buying, supply is the issue. Supply comes from the sale of existing homes, the sale of new homes, and the sale of foreclosed homes.
* Typically ten to fifteen percent of Americans sell or want to sell their home in a given year. Recent survey data shows the number is now 30%. Keep that in mind.
* New home sales are incredibly low. Market wisdom said home building stocks would rise once the new housing start rate hit a million and inventory became tight. New home starts are roughly half of that and there ain't no rebound. As the poet said, times, they be a changing.
* People are not selling, and builders are not building, not just because people are not buying - it is because prices are low and going lower and the driver here is foreclosures. Data can be found here, there and everywhere but the salient data points are a) banks are accelerating foreclosures, b) the next wave of resets of mortgages, the cause of most foreclosures, does not peak until the summer of 2011, c) banks are already sitting on more than half a million homes they have not listed for sale, and the whopper is d) the New York Times has reported that there are nineteen million empty housing units and only six million are listed for sale.
This last point, when combined with another couple of million foreclosed homes, then with desire for people wanting to sell their home as soon as they can, means excess inventory for as far as the eye can see. I originally projected housing prices would, nationally, bottom at the end of 2011 and prices would begin to pick up in mid 2012. I may have been premature. With resets peaking in mid defaults will probably peak in early Q4 2011; this means foreclosure listings will peak in mid-summer 2012, after the peak selling season, not good for managing down inventory. Assuming demand picks up - a near heroic assumption at this time as interest rates will be higher and unemployment could be the same or higher at that time - you will start to see inventory declining in a meaningful way until 2013 at the earliest.
I have focused on supply - was I too cavalier about demand? Well, that is more problematic - resets, defaults and foreclosures are fourth grade math and although the only thing I knew about housing was my own mortgage before this mess started, I can do fourth grade math and every forecast I have made about foreclosures and inventory has been right within a 30-45 day period.
Using fourth grade math as our primary tool does have value in estimating demand. Roughly 40% of demand in the peak year - 2006 - was sub-prime or near sub-prime - and these buyers are out of the market for a considerable period of time. And a very large percentage - some analysts estimate as high as a third - of all sales were for investment and second homes. Most of this demand is gone for the foreseeable future. Add tightening credit standards, recession ravaged incomes and personal balance sheets, and a new frugality and it is hard to see demand in 2013 or 2014 climbing past 50% of demand in 2006. Even if the FHA does not go bust - which it will, requiring another Treasury bailout.
validIV
06-25 02:37 PM
And according to your theory, renting is a better investment? Throwing your money away is a good investment to you? Then I don't think we are on the same page.
There are many homeowners who are underwater but not foreclosed. That does not make it a good investment. All I'm pointing out is unless your property's rent covers your monthly mortgage+property tax+insurance+maintenance and upkeep it can not be called a good investment. You should have positive (at least non negative) cash flow out of your rental properties. Is this a general case? I think not. At least in my area I'm 100% sure rent does not cover mortgage and the difference between the two is significant.
If you have a negative cash flow on your rental properties then the only thing you are betting on is price appreciation of your properties (above inflation) in future which is speculation again.
There are many homeowners who are underwater but not foreclosed. That does not make it a good investment. All I'm pointing out is unless your property's rent covers your monthly mortgage+property tax+insurance+maintenance and upkeep it can not be called a good investment. You should have positive (at least non negative) cash flow out of your rental properties. Is this a general case? I think not. At least in my area I'm 100% sure rent does not cover mortgage and the difference between the two is significant.
If you have a negative cash flow on your rental properties then the only thing you are betting on is price appreciation of your properties (above inflation) in future which is speculation again.
funny
09-26 02:34 PM
Do you think that It will effect everyone who is already waiting....I my personal opinion, the Point based system will be implemented to the new applications and not the pending ones...These applications are already in the Last stages why would they spend time and resources on these all over again...but again this is my personal opinion
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